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Wall Street Says Japan Yield Curve Flattening Has Gone Too Far

Bloomberg Markets
Thursday, February 26, 2026 at 12:51 AM
~4 min read
TradeFixed Income

Original Report

Wall Street’s conviction trade on Japan’s bond market is starting to fray, with strategists arguing the sharp flattening in the yield curve after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s election victory has...

Wall Street’s conviction trade on Japan’s bond market is starting to fray, with strategists arguing the sharp flattening in the yield curve after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s election victory has gone too far.

Glass House Analysis

Treasury market movements signal how investors view America's fiscal health and economic trajectory. Rising yields mean the government pays more to borrow, which eventually shows up in taxes or reduced services. For average Americans, this translates to higher mortgage rates, more expensive business loans, and a general tightening of financial conditions that makes everything from buying a home to starting a business more challenging.

International economic policy has concrete impacts far beyond diplomatic circles. Tariffs show up in the price of goods at stores, supply chain disruptions affect whether products are on shelves, and trade tensions can mean job losses in export-dependent industries. The globalized economy means that decisions made abroad can affect workers and consumers domestically.

The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.

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