Moody’s says a recession will be hard to avoid if oil prices stay elevated for even a few more weeks
Original Report
The outlook for the U.S. economy will continue to darken as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to oil-tanker traffic, even though the U.S. now produces about as much oil and...
The outlook for the U.S. economy will continue to darken as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to oil-tanker traffic, even though the U.S. now produces about as much oil and natural gas as it consumes.
Glass House Analysis
Energy prices affect virtually every aspect of daily life—from commuting costs to heating bills to the price of groceries (which must be transported). For working families, energy represents one of the most volatile and impactful line items in their budgets. Energy policy decisions ripple through the economy, affecting everything from manufacturing competitiveness to household financial stress.
The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.
Enjoyed this analysis?
Get the Glass House Briefing every morning—market news that actually makes sense, delivered free to your inbox.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
More Stories
S&P 500 futures are little changed after major averages rebound on easing oil prices: Live updates
Each of the 11 S&P sectors closed higher in Monday's regular session, led by gains in tech.
Global Funds Look to Malaysia as Iran War Shakes Up Asian Assets
Even before the war in Iran sparked a surge in energy prices, Malaysia stood out from its Southeast Asian peers as the newfound darling of global investors.
Private Credit Default Rates to Reach 8%, Morgan Stanley Says
Default rates in direct lending will climb to 8% as advances in artificial intelligence continue to disrupt the software industry, according to Morgan Stanley.
Bill Gurley on AI bubble: A bunch of people got rich quick and a reset is coming
Gurley's VC firm Benchmark was an early Uber investor, and he helped oust then-CEO Travis Kalanick in 2017.