Downward Moves in Employment Paths: Beware the Population Controls and B/D Model
Original Report
The new birth/death model has been in for two months; the new population controls were retroactively applied to January (usually, there are no revisions from month to month). NFP miss of 150K vs...
The new birth/death model has been in for two months; the new population controls were retroactively applied to January (usually, there are no revisions from month to month). NFP miss of 150K vs Bloomberg consensus of +58K. Figure 1: CES nonfarm payroll payroll employment, February release (dark blue, left log scale), January release (sky blue, […]
Glass House Analysis
Labor market conditions shape the lived experience of millions of working families. When jobs are plentiful, workers have leverage to demand better wages and conditions; when they're scarce, the balance of power shifts to employers. This dynamic plays out daily in kitchen tables across America, where families make decisions about whether to ask for a raise, change jobs, or accept less-than-ideal conditions out of necessity.
The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.
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