How the Iran War Could Impact Merchandise Trade Growth
Original Report
World Trade Organization Chief Economist Robert Staiger discusses the impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East on trade. Speaking on Bloomberg Television, he says the WTO was already...
World Trade Organization Chief Economist Robert Staiger discusses the impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East on trade. Speaking on Bloomberg Television, he says the WTO was already predicting a fall in merchandise trade from 4.6% in 2025 to 1.9% in 2026, but the effect of the war on energy prices could lower the growth further. "The growth rate would be 1.4% that we're predicting in 2026," Staiger says. He also talks about the impact of the Iran war on services trade. (Source: Bloomberg)
Glass House Analysis
International economic policy has concrete impacts far beyond diplomatic circles. Tariffs show up in the price of goods at stores, supply chain disruptions affect whether products are on shelves, and trade tensions can mean job losses in export-dependent industries. The globalized economy means that decisions made abroad can affect workers and consumers domestically.
Inflation is the silent tax that erodes purchasing power, hitting hardest those who can least afford it. When grocery bills rise faster than wages, families face impossible choices between food, medicine, and rent. Unlike market volatility that mainly affects investors, inflation touches everyone who buys groceries, fills a gas tank, or pays rent.
Energy prices affect virtually every aspect of daily life—from commuting costs to heating bills to the price of groceries (which must be transported). For working families, energy represents one of the most volatile and impactful line items in their budgets. Energy policy decisions ripple through the economy, affecting everything from manufacturing competitiveness to household financial stress.
The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.
Enjoyed this analysis?
Get the Glass House Briefing every morning—market news that actually makes sense, delivered free to your inbox.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
More Stories
Financial advisers used to say no to bitcoin. Now they’re saying maybe — but with a catch.
Crypto-curious clients are forcing wealth managers to rethink their opposition. Many use a 5% rule to manage the risk.
Soaring healthcare costs are forcing people to make troubling trade-offs, like skipping meals — and the situation is about to get worse
Here’s one woman’s plan: “Shopping for cheaper groceries, not buying clothes, avoiding getting sick, not being as social.”
Stock futures edge lower as S&P 500 heads for fourth losing week in a row amid high oil prices: Live updates
The major averages posted back-to-back losses on Thursday, placing the S&P 500 on track for a fourth consecutive losing week.
Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: York Space Systems, Super Micro Computer, Planet Labs, FedEx & more
These are the stocks posting the largest moves in premarket trading.