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Marginal Revolutionanalysis

Public Finance in the Age of AI: A Primer

Marginal Revolution
Wednesday, February 25, 2026 at 7:47 AM
~4 min read

Original Report

Transformative artificial intelligence (TAI) – machines capable of performing virtually all economically valuable work – may gradually erode the two main tax bases that underpin modern tax systems:...

Transformative artificial intelligence (TAI) – machines capable of performing virtually all economically valuable work – may gradually erode the two main tax bases that underpin modern tax systems: labor income and human consumption. We examine optimal taxation across two stages of artificial intelligence (AI)-driven transformation. First, if AI displaces human labor, we find that consumption […] The post Public Finance in the Age of AI: A Primer appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Glass House Analysis

Labor market conditions shape the lived experience of millions of working families. When jobs are plentiful, workers have leverage to demand better wages and conditions; when they're scarce, the balance of power shifts to employers. This dynamic plays out daily in kitchen tables across America, where families make decisions about whether to ask for a raise, change jobs, or accept less-than-ideal conditions out of necessity.

The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.

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Economic Context

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