Uncertainty and Risk during Trump 2.0
Original Report
If you thought the US-Iran war was effectively over, if you thought USMCA was safe, if you thought no more trade surprises, well think again: Figure 1: panel a: Economic policy uncertainty; panel b:...
If you thought the US-Iran war was effectively over, if you thought USMCA was safe, if you thought no more trade surprises, well think again: Figure 1: panel a: Economic policy uncertainty; panel b: trade policy uncertainty; panel c: Geopolitical risk – actions; panel d: VIX, all standardized 1/1/2014-1/19/2025. Units are “standard deviations” from mean. […]
Glass House Analysis
International economic policy has concrete impacts far beyond diplomatic circles. Tariffs show up in the price of goods at stores, supply chain disruptions affect whether products are on shelves, and trade tensions can mean job losses in export-dependent industries. The globalized economy means that decisions made abroad can affect workers and consumers domestically.
The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.
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