A 'significant' private credit shakeout on par with Covid losses is coming, predicts Morgan Stanley
Original Report
Morgan Stanley expects direct lending default rates to reach as high as 8%.
Glass House Analysis
This development in the banking sector reflects broader tensions between regulatory pressure and financial industry practices. Interest rate policy directly affects household budgets—higher rates mean more expensive mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt, squeezing middle-class families while benefiting savers and banks. The banking system serves as the circulatory system of the economy; any disruption ripples through to small businesses, homebuyers, and everyday consumers who depend on credit access.
The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.
Enjoyed this analysis?
Get the Glass House Briefing every morning—market news that actually makes sense, delivered free to your inbox.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
More Stories
U.S. doesn’t need help in Iran, Trump says, as NATO rebuffs plea and oil prices climb
President Trump had previously said “numerous countries” would help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
These software stocks have turned things around and outperformed since the Iran war began
Some of the weakest areas of the market in 2026 have turned into outperformers since the Iran conflict began, according to Deutsche Bank Research.
Arizona Charges Kalshi With Operating Illegal Gambling Business
Arizona said it filed criminal charges against Kalshi for operating an illegal gambling business in the state.
U.S. counterterrorism director Joe Kent resigns over war: 'Iran posed no imminent threat'
"Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation," Kent wrote in his letter to President Donald Trump.