Recession Probabilities: All around 30%-35%
Original Report
From WSJ, recession within the next 12 months: Figure 1: Mean probability of recession within the next 12 months, WSJ March survey, % (blue square). NBER defined peak to trough recession dates shaded...
From WSJ, recession within the next 12 months: Figure 1: Mean probability of recession within the next 12 months, WSJ March survey, % (blue square). NBER defined peak to trough recession dates shaded gray. WSJ survey, NBER. Median probability is 30% (Hollenhurst, Clark/Citigroup). The highest probability is 85%, lowest is 1% (unless it’s a typo…). […]
Glass House Analysis
This story reflects the interconnected nature of modern economic systems, where developments in one sector inevitably affect others. Understanding these connections is essential for grasping how policy decisions and market movements translate into real-world outcomes for families, workers, and communities. The economy is not an abstract system of numbers—it's the sum total of decisions about who works, who prospers, and who struggles.
The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.
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