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Marginal Revolutionanalysis

ICE has not improved U.S. labor markets

Marginal Revolution
Wednesday, May 6, 2026 at 6:14 PM
~4 min read

Original Report

We provide the first causal, national empirical analysis of the labor market impacts of heightened immigration enforcement during the second Trump administration. Enforcement increased everywhere,...

We provide the first causal, national empirical analysis of the labor market impacts of heightened immigration enforcement during the second Trump administration. Enforcement increased everywhere, but, we take advantage of the fact that the increases have been uneven across geographic areas to classify areas as treated or control and then implement an event study and […] The post ICE has not improved U.S. labor markets appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Glass House Analysis

Labor market conditions shape the lived experience of millions of working families. When jobs are plentiful, workers have leverage to demand better wages and conditions; when they're scarce, the balance of power shifts to employers. This dynamic plays out daily in kitchen tables across America, where families make decisions about whether to ask for a raise, change jobs, or accept less-than-ideal conditions out of necessity.

The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.

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