Workers of the US: Were You Better Off in February 2026 than Today?
Original Report
Average Hourly Earnings in CPI deflated 2025$: Figure 1: Average hourly wage in CPI deflated 2025$ (bold black), Using Cleveland Fed nowcast (gray), using Bloomberg consensus (light blue ), all on...
Average Hourly Earnings in CPI deflated 2025$: Figure 1: Average hourly wage in CPI deflated 2025$ (bold black), Using Cleveland Fed nowcast (gray), using Bloomberg consensus (light blue ), all on log scale. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed accessed 4/7, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations. It all looks a lot worse if one uses the AIER’s “Everyday Price […]
Glass House Analysis
Central bank policy decisions made in boardrooms cascade through the economy in ways that touch everyone. A quarter-point rate change might seem abstract, but it determines whether young families can afford homes, whether businesses can afford to hire, and whether retirees see meaningful returns on their savings. The tension between fighting inflation and maintaining employment represents a fundamental tradeoff in economic policy—one that invariably creates winners and losers.
Inflation is the silent tax that erodes purchasing power, hitting hardest those who can least afford it. When grocery bills rise faster than wages, families face impossible choices between food, medicine, and rent. Unlike market volatility that mainly affects investors, inflation touches everyone who buys groceries, fills a gas tank, or pays rent.
Corporate decisions reverberate through local communities—a merger might mean headquarters relocating, a restructuring could eliminate jobs, and strategic shifts affect suppliers and service providers in countless towns. Behind quarterly earnings numbers are real employment decisions, investment choices, and community impacts that shape the economic landscape of regions across the country.
The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.
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