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Econbrowseranalysis

The Year (and 2 months) of Living Dangerously

Econbrowser
Thursday, March 26, 2026 at 7:26 AM
~4 min read
TradeEquitiesEnergy

Original Report

Economic Policy Uncertainty (US, Global), Trade Policy Uncertainty, GeoPolitical Risk, Stock Market, and (now) Oil Volatility all enhanced from January 2025 onward. Coincidence? Figure 1: US news EPU...

Economic Policy Uncertainty (US, Global), Trade Policy Uncertainty, GeoPolitical Risk, Stock Market, and (now) Oil Volatility all enhanced from January 2025 onward. Coincidence? Figure 1: US news EPU (blue, left scale), global EPU (red, scale), Trade Policy Uncertainty divided by 4 (green, right scale), GeoPolitical Risk index (brown, right scale). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates […]

Glass House Analysis

International economic policy has concrete impacts far beyond diplomatic circles. Tariffs show up in the price of goods at stores, supply chain disruptions affect whether products are on shelves, and trade tensions can mean job losses in export-dependent industries. The globalized economy means that decisions made abroad can affect workers and consumers domestically.

Energy prices affect virtually every aspect of daily life—from commuting costs to heating bills to the price of groceries (which must be transported). For working families, energy represents one of the most volatile and impactful line items in their budgets. Energy policy decisions ripple through the economy, affecting everything from manufacturing competitiveness to household financial stress.

The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.

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