The Year (and 2 months) of Living Dangerously
Original Report
Economic Policy Uncertainty (US, Global), Trade Policy Uncertainty, GeoPolitical Risk, Stock Market, and (now) Oil Volatility all enhanced from January 2025 onward. Coincidence? Figure 1: US news EPU...
Economic Policy Uncertainty (US, Global), Trade Policy Uncertainty, GeoPolitical Risk, Stock Market, and (now) Oil Volatility all enhanced from January 2025 onward. Coincidence? Figure 1: US news EPU (blue, left scale), global EPU (red, scale), Trade Policy Uncertainty divided by 4 (green, right scale), GeoPolitical Risk index (brown, right scale). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates […]
Glass House Analysis
International economic policy has concrete impacts far beyond diplomatic circles. Tariffs show up in the price of goods at stores, supply chain disruptions affect whether products are on shelves, and trade tensions can mean job losses in export-dependent industries. The globalized economy means that decisions made abroad can affect workers and consumers domestically.
Energy prices affect virtually every aspect of daily life—from commuting costs to heating bills to the price of groceries (which must be transported). For working families, energy represents one of the most volatile and impactful line items in their budgets. Energy policy decisions ripple through the economy, affecting everything from manufacturing competitiveness to household financial stress.
The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.
Enjoyed this analysis?
Get the Glass House Briefing every morning—market news that actually makes sense, delivered free to your inbox.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
More Stories
Gulf states say they're ready for 'self defense' as stance shifts on Iran war
Gulf states have issued a joint statement on Thursday condemning Iran's "blatant" and "criminal" attacks against them.
Global oil prices near $100 as Iran war nears one-month mark
Oil prices climbed on Thursday as the war in Iran approaches its one-month mark, with little sign of an end in sight.
H&M Sales Fall Short of Expectations
H&M first-quarter sales fell short of expectations in a period plagued by weak consumption and large currency effects. Bloomberg Opinion columnist Andrea Felsted weighs in on the challenges facing...
Stagflation is back
War in Iran threatens to hit growth and confidence, deepen governments’ unpopularity and hurt public finances