Estimated FY2026 Budget Deficit
Original Report
From CBO. Source: CBO. Notes: Solid light purple is FY2024, solid dark purple is FY2025, dashed black is FY2026 estimate for cumulative deficit. As of 2026Q2, we’re nearly a percentage point above...
From CBO. Source: CBO. Notes: Solid light purple is FY2024, solid dark purple is FY2025, dashed black is FY2026 estimate for cumulative deficit. As of 2026Q2, we’re nearly a percentage point above full employment, according to CBO’s estimate of potential GDP. Shouldn’t the deficit be shrinking, rather than increasing, as a share of GDP?
Glass House Analysis
Labor market conditions shape the lived experience of millions of working families. When jobs are plentiful, workers have leverage to demand better wages and conditions; when they're scarce, the balance of power shifts to employers. This dynamic plays out daily in kitchen tables across America, where families make decisions about whether to ask for a raise, change jobs, or accept less-than-ideal conditions out of necessity.
The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.
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