QCEW, ADP and CPS Readings on NFP, Manufacturing Employment: Not as Rosie
Original Report
We have alternative readings on employment, compared to CES series. Figure 1: Change since 2025M01 in CES Nonfarm Payroll employment (blue), QCEW Nonfarm Payroll covered employment, seasonally...
We have alternative readings on employment, compared to CES series. Figure 1: Change since 2025M01 in CES Nonfarm Payroll employment (blue), QCEW Nonfarm Payroll covered employment, seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 (green), and CPS employment adjusted to NFP concept (brown). Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, BLS/QCEW and author’s calculations. Figure 2: Change since 2025M01 […]
Glass House Analysis
Labor market conditions shape the lived experience of millions of working families. When jobs are plentiful, workers have leverage to demand better wages and conditions; when they're scarce, the balance of power shifts to employers. This dynamic plays out daily in kitchen tables across America, where families make decisions about whether to ask for a raise, change jobs, or accept less-than-ideal conditions out of necessity.
The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.
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