PCE Inflation in September
Original Report
Some divergence from Cleveland Fed nowcast vs. Bloomberg consensus: Figure 1: PCE deflator (black), Cleveland Fed nowcast (red triangle), Bloomberg consensus on 10/25 (blue square). September...
Some divergence from Cleveland Fed nowcast vs. Bloomberg consensus: Figure 1: PCE deflator (black), Cleveland Fed nowcast (red triangle), Bloomberg consensus on 10/25 (blue square). September nowcasts/forecasts using year-on-year changes. Source: BEA, Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.
Glass House Analysis
Central bank policy decisions made in boardrooms cascade through the economy in ways that touch everyone. A quarter-point rate change might seem abstract, but it determines whether young families can afford homes, whether businesses can afford to hire, and whether retirees see meaningful returns on their savings. The tension between fighting inflation and maintaining employment represents a fundamental tradeoff in economic policy—one that invariably creates winners and losers.
The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.
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