On the Eve of the 2025Q4 Advance Release
Original Report
Jim will have examination of the GDP numbers tomorrow, but here is the picture as of today, in the wake of the international trade figures, industrial production, housing starts, yesterday and today....
Jim will have examination of the GDP numbers tomorrow, but here is the picture as of today, in the wake of the international trade figures, industrial production, housing starts, yesterday and today. Figure 1: GDP as reported (bold black), GDPNow (sky blue square), Goldman Sachs tracking (red triangle), January WSJ survey mean (blue), and 2023-24 […]
Glass House Analysis
Housing sits at the intersection of economic policy and the American Dream. For most families, their home represents their largest asset and their primary path to building generational wealth. When housing becomes unaffordable, the social fabric frays—young people delay family formation, workers can't relocate for better jobs, and communities lose the stability that comes from homeownership.
International economic policy has concrete impacts far beyond diplomatic circles. Tariffs show up in the price of goods at stores, supply chain disruptions affect whether products are on shelves, and trade tensions can mean job losses in export-dependent industries. The globalized economy means that decisions made abroad can affect workers and consumers domestically.
The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.
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