Real Wages in June
Original Report
Using CPI, wage earner-CPI, CPI ex shelter, and Everyday Prices: Figure 1: Average hourly wage in 2025$ using headline CPI (bold black), wage earner and clerical worker CPI (red), CPI ex-shelter...
Using CPI, wage earner-CPI, CPI ex shelter, and Everyday Prices: Figure 1: Average hourly wage in 2025$ using headline CPI (bold black), wage earner and clerical worker CPI (red), CPI ex-shelter (blue), and Everday Price Index (green). May Everyday Price Index estmated using reported CPI and gasoline price changes. Source: BLS, AIER, and author’s calculations.
Glass House Analysis
Labor market conditions shape the lived experience of millions of working families. When jobs are plentiful, workers have leverage to demand better wages and conditions; when they're scarce, the balance of power shifts to employers. This dynamic plays out daily in kitchen tables across America, where families make decisions about whether to ask for a raise, change jobs, or accept less-than-ideal conditions out of necessity.
Inflation is the silent tax that erodes purchasing power, hitting hardest those who can least afford it. When grocery bills rise faster than wages, families face impossible choices between food, medicine, and rent. Unlike market volatility that mainly affects investors, inflation touches everyone who buys groceries, fills a gas tank, or pays rent.
Energy prices affect virtually every aspect of daily life—from commuting costs to heating bills to the price of groceries (which must be transported). For working families, energy represents one of the most volatile and impactful line items in their budgets. Energy policy decisions ripple through the economy, affecting everything from manufacturing competitiveness to household financial stress.
The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.
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