CBR Reduces Rates as Measured GDP Growth Declines
Original Report
As of yesterday (discussion in WSJ): CBR estimates 0.9% growth for 2025 y/y. It also estimates y/y December inflation at only 5.6%, so take that as you will.* Here’s reported GDP: Figure 1: Russian...
As of yesterday (discussion in WSJ): CBR estimates 0.9% growth for 2025 y/y. It also estimates y/y December inflation at only 5.6%, so take that as you will.* Here’s reported GDP: Figure 1: Russian real GDP, n.s.a. (black), seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 (log) (blue), all in mn.Rub. 2025Q4 figure is from January […]
Glass House Analysis
Inflation is the silent tax that erodes purchasing power, hitting hardest those who can least afford it. When grocery bills rise faster than wages, families face impossible choices between food, medicine, and rent. Unlike market volatility that mainly affects investors, inflation touches everyone who buys groceries, fills a gas tank, or pays rent.
The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.
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