Economic Policy Uncertainty, Financial Risk, Geopolitical Risk, Expected Inflation and Oil Volatility
Original Report
EPU, VIX and GPR: Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), 7 day centered moving average (bold red, left scale), VIX (green, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com, CBOE via FRED, and author’s...
EPU, VIX and GPR: Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), 7 day centered moving average (bold red, left scale), VIX (green, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com, CBOE via FRED, and author’s calculations. Figure 2: Geopolitical Risk Index (black), 7 day centered moving average (pink). Source: Caldara, et al., and author’s calculations. Inflation breakeven and […]
Glass House Analysis
Inflation is the silent tax that erodes purchasing power, hitting hardest those who can least afford it. When grocery bills rise faster than wages, families face impossible choices between food, medicine, and rent. Unlike market volatility that mainly affects investors, inflation touches everyone who buys groceries, fills a gas tank, or pays rent.
The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.
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