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Fed Can Avoid Hiking on Cooler Data, Economist Roth Says

Bloomberg Markets
Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 1:42 PM
~4 min read
Monetary Policy

Original Report

Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research, expects to see cooler economic data ahead, giving the Federal Reserve cover to “credibly” avoid hiking interest rates in September. (Source:...

Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research, expects to see cooler economic data ahead, giving the Federal Reserve cover to “credibly” avoid hiking interest rates in September. (Source: Bloomberg)

Glass House Analysis

Central bank policy decisions made in boardrooms cascade through the economy in ways that touch everyone. A quarter-point rate change might seem abstract, but it determines whether young families can afford homes, whether businesses can afford to hire, and whether retirees see meaningful returns on their savings. The tension between fighting inflation and maintaining employment represents a fundamental tradeoff in economic policy—one that invariably creates winners and losers.

The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.

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