Detrended Sentiment
Original Report
Using the HP filter applied to U.Michigan Sentiment, consumers don’t seem too gloomy relative to “average”. But they do seem gloomy relative to observed unemployment and inflation rates. Figure 1:...
Using the HP filter applied to U.Michigan Sentiment, consumers don’t seem too gloomy relative to “average”. But they do seem gloomy relative to observed unemployment and inflation rates. Figure 1: University of Michigan Sentiment demeaned (bold black), HP detrended (blue), Misery Index regression residual (red), Misery Index 2010-26 residual (teal). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates […]
Glass House Analysis
Labor market conditions shape the lived experience of millions of working families. When jobs are plentiful, workers have leverage to demand better wages and conditions; when they're scarce, the balance of power shifts to employers. This dynamic plays out daily in kitchen tables across America, where families make decisions about whether to ask for a raise, change jobs, or accept less-than-ideal conditions out of necessity.
Inflation is the silent tax that erodes purchasing power, hitting hardest those who can least afford it. When grocery bills rise faster than wages, families face impossible choices between food, medicine, and rent. Unlike market volatility that mainly affects investors, inflation touches everyone who buys groceries, fills a gas tank, or pays rent.
The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.
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