ARIMA on Grocery Prices
Original Report
Food at home prices are outpacing the CPI. Figure 1: CPI – food at home (black), January 2025 ERS forecast (inverted green triangle), January 2026 forecast (light blue square), May 2026 forecast (red...
Food at home prices are outpacing the CPI. Figure 1: CPI – food at home (black), January 2025 ERS forecast (inverted green triangle), January 2026 forecast (light blue square), May 2026 forecast (red triangle), all on log scale. Source: BLS, ERS, and author’s calculations. Since the series are plotted against a log scale, the steepening […]
Glass House Analysis
Housing sits at the intersection of economic policy and the American Dream. For most families, their home represents their largest asset and their primary path to building generational wealth. When housing becomes unaffordable, the social fabric frays—young people delay family formation, workers can't relocate for better jobs, and communities lose the stability that comes from homeownership.
Inflation is the silent tax that erodes purchasing power, hitting hardest those who can least afford it. When grocery bills rise faster than wages, families face impossible choices between food, medicine, and rent. Unlike market volatility that mainly affects investors, inflation touches everyone who buys groceries, fills a gas tank, or pays rent.
The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.
Enjoyed this analysis?
Get the Glass House Briefing every morning—market news that actually makes sense, delivered free to your inbox.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
More Stories
Stock futures are little changed after the S&P 500 closes at another record: Live updates
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose to fresh intraday and closing records on Tuesday.
Oil Steadies as US Sees Progress in Iran Deal Despite Tensions
Oil was little changed in early Asian trading, as the US touted progress toward a peace deal with Iran despite fresh hostilities and uncertainty over the vital Strait of Hormuz.
BP removes chair Albert Manifold after claims of bullying
Hands-on approach was viewed as aggressive by several colleagues at UK oil major
How a stock market ‘melt-up’ could carry the S&P 500 to 8,000 or beyond
The hottest thing in the U.S. this summer isn’t the weather — it’s the rip-roaring stock market.