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Econbrowseranalysis

ARIMA on Grocery Prices

Econbrowser
Tuesday, May 26, 2026 at 8:32 PM
~4 min read
Inflation

Original Report

Food at home prices are outpacing the CPI. Figure 1: CPI – food at home (black), January 2025 ERS forecast (inverted green triangle), January 2026 forecast (light blue square), May 2026 forecast (red...

Food at home prices are outpacing the CPI. Figure 1: CPI – food at home (black), January 2025 ERS forecast (inverted green triangle), January 2026 forecast (light blue square), May 2026 forecast (red triangle), all on log scale. Source: BLS, ERS, and author’s calculations. Since the series are plotted against a log scale, the steepening […]

Glass House Analysis

Housing sits at the intersection of economic policy and the American Dream. For most families, their home represents their largest asset and their primary path to building generational wealth. When housing becomes unaffordable, the social fabric frays—young people delay family formation, workers can't relocate for better jobs, and communities lose the stability that comes from homeownership.

Inflation is the silent tax that erodes purchasing power, hitting hardest those who can least afford it. When grocery bills rise faster than wages, families face impossible choices between food, medicine, and rent. Unlike market volatility that mainly affects investors, inflation touches everyone who buys groceries, fills a gas tank, or pays rent.

The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.

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