RBC's Lori Calvasina Sees S&P 500 Upside Despite Fed Risk
Original Report
Wall Street traders sent stocks and bonds wavering in the Monday session as fresh Middle East violence stoked concerns about an escalation of the war that has jolted global markets. Following the S&P...
Wall Street traders sent stocks and bonds wavering in the Monday session as fresh Middle East violence stoked concerns about an escalation of the war that has jolted global markets. Following the S&P 500’s longest weekly advance since May, the gauge fluctuated. Chipmakers rallied as Anthropic PBC’s revenue surge bolstered bets on the artificial-intelligence trade. Brent crude rose to around $89, leaving traders wary about inflationary pressures that could make the Federal Reserve raise rates. Treasury 30-year yields hit the highest since 2007. Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, explains why Fed policy uncertainty, potential rate hikes and valuation concerns may not be enough to derail the equity rally. She speaks to hosts Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney on Surveillance Radio. (Source: Bloomberg)
Glass House Analysis
Treasury market movements signal how investors view America's fiscal health and economic trajectory. Rising yields mean the government pays more to borrow, which eventually shows up in taxes or reduced services. For average Americans, this translates to higher mortgage rates, more expensive business loans, and a general tightening of financial conditions that makes everything from buying a home to starting a business more challenging.
Central bank policy decisions made in boardrooms cascade through the economy in ways that touch everyone. A quarter-point rate change might seem abstract, but it determines whether young families can afford homes, whether businesses can afford to hire, and whether retirees see meaningful returns on their savings. The tension between fighting inflation and maintaining employment represents a fundamental tradeoff in economic policy—one that invariably creates winners and losers.
International economic policy has concrete impacts far beyond diplomatic circles. Tariffs show up in the price of goods at stores, supply chain disruptions affect whether products are on shelves, and trade tensions can mean job losses in export-dependent industries. The globalized economy means that decisions made abroad can affect workers and consumers domestically.
Inflation is the silent tax that erodes purchasing power, hitting hardest those who can least afford it. When grocery bills rise faster than wages, families face impossible choices between food, medicine, and rent. Unlike market volatility that mainly affects investors, inflation touches everyone who buys groceries, fills a gas tank, or pays rent.
The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.
Enjoyed this analysis?
Get the Glass House Briefing every morning—market news that actually makes sense, delivered free to your inbox.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.