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See Potential for 4% Inflation in 2026: PIIE's Posen

Bloomberg Markets
Friday, February 13, 2026 at 10:43 PM
~4 min read
Monetary PolicyInflation

Original Report

Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, joins Bloomberg Businessweek Daily to discuss the US geopolitical and economic outlook, including his recent call that he...

Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, joins Bloomberg Businessweek Daily to discuss the US geopolitical and economic outlook, including his recent call that he sees US inflation potentially exceeding four percent by the end of 2026. Posen also discusses President Trump's Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh, US-China competition and global order, and more. Posen speaks with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. (Source: Bloomberg)

Glass House Analysis

Central bank policy decisions made in boardrooms cascade through the economy in ways that touch everyone. A quarter-point rate change might seem abstract, but it determines whether young families can afford homes, whether businesses can afford to hire, and whether retirees see meaningful returns on their savings. The tension between fighting inflation and maintaining employment represents a fundamental tradeoff in economic policy—one that invariably creates winners and losers.

International economic policy has concrete impacts far beyond diplomatic circles. Tariffs show up in the price of goods at stores, supply chain disruptions affect whether products are on shelves, and trade tensions can mean job losses in export-dependent industries. The globalized economy means that decisions made abroad can affect workers and consumers domestically.

Inflation is the silent tax that erodes purchasing power, hitting hardest those who can least afford it. When grocery bills rise faster than wages, families face impossible choices between food, medicine, and rent. Unlike market volatility that mainly affects investors, inflation touches everyone who buys groceries, fills a gas tank, or pays rent.

The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.

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