EPU and News Sentiment Since the War
Original Report
For EPU through yesterday, news sentiment through 5/18. Figure 1: Shapiro-Sudhof-Wilson News Sentiment (blue, left scale), Economic Policy Uncertainty (light red, right scale), 7-day centered moving...
For EPU through yesterday, news sentiment through 5/18. Figure 1: Shapiro-Sudhof-Wilson News Sentiment (blue, left scale), Economic Policy Uncertainty (light red, right scale), 7-day centered moving average (bold red, right scale). Source: SF Fed, policyuncertainty.com. The News Sentiment Index has arguably been lower after 1/20/2025 than before, while EPU has been higher (simple OLS each […]
Glass House Analysis
Central bank policy decisions made in boardrooms cascade through the economy in ways that touch everyone. A quarter-point rate change might seem abstract, but it determines whether young families can afford homes, whether businesses can afford to hire, and whether retirees see meaningful returns on their savings. The tension between fighting inflation and maintaining employment represents a fundamental tradeoff in economic policy—one that invariably creates winners and losers.
The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.
Enjoyed this analysis?
Get the Glass House Briefing every morning—market news that actually makes sense, delivered free to your inbox.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.