Goldman Hikes Oil Forecasts Again as Hormuz Shock Builds
Original Report
Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs Co-Head of Global Commodities Research, joins Bloomberg Businessweek Daily to discuss his team's latest oil outlook. Struyven and his team upgraded Brent to $90/barrel by...
Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs Co-Head of Global Commodities Research, joins Bloomberg Businessweek Daily to discuss his team's latest oil outlook. Struyven and his team upgraded Brent to $90/barrel by the fourth quarter, citing lower Persian Gulf production, and ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption. They now assume a normalization in Gulf exports by the end of June (vs. a prior forecast of mid-May) and see a slower recovery for Gulf production. However, a global recession is not in the team's base case unless the strait remains mostly closed in a "severely adverse" scenario. Struyven speaks with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. (Source: Bloomberg)
Glass House Analysis
International economic policy has concrete impacts far beyond diplomatic circles. Tariffs show up in the price of goods at stores, supply chain disruptions affect whether products are on shelves, and trade tensions can mean job losses in export-dependent industries. The globalized economy means that decisions made abroad can affect workers and consumers domestically.
Energy prices affect virtually every aspect of daily life—from commuting costs to heating bills to the price of groceries (which must be transported). For working families, energy represents one of the most volatile and impactful line items in their budgets. Energy policy decisions ripple through the economy, affecting everything from manufacturing competitiveness to household financial stress.
The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.
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