NY Fed, SoFIE Predicted April Y/Y Inflation
Original Report
although they over-estimated in 2023-24. Figure 1: Actual year-on-year CPI inflation (bold black), lagged expectations from U.Mich. Survey of Consumers (red), [median] from NY Fed (brown), [mean]...
although they over-estimated in 2023-24. Figure 1: Actual year-on-year CPI inflation (bold black), lagged expectations from U.Mich. Survey of Consumers (red), [median] from NY Fed (brown), [mean] from Cleveland Fed Survey of Firms Inflation Expectations (SoFIE) (light blue +), all in %. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, U.Mich via FRED, NY […]
Glass House Analysis
Central bank policy decisions made in boardrooms cascade through the economy in ways that touch everyone. A quarter-point rate change might seem abstract, but it determines whether young families can afford homes, whether businesses can afford to hire, and whether retirees see meaningful returns on their savings. The tension between fighting inflation and maintaining employment represents a fundamental tradeoff in economic policy—one that invariably creates winners and losers.
Inflation is the silent tax that erodes purchasing power, hitting hardest those who can least afford it. When grocery bills rise faster than wages, families face impossible choices between food, medicine, and rent. Unlike market volatility that mainly affects investors, inflation touches everyone who buys groceries, fills a gas tank, or pays rent.
The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.
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