The Economy: When We Last Entered a Land War on the Asian Mainland
Original Report
Employment fell as EPU rose; production stalls as Geopolitical Risk spiked. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, 000’s (blue, left log scale); EPU (red, right scale). Source: BLS,...
Employment fell as EPU rose; production stalls as Geopolitical Risk spiked. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, 000’s (blue, left log scale); EPU (red, right scale). Source: BLS, policyuncertainty.com. Figure 2: Manufacturing production (blue, left log scale), Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index (red, right scale). Source: Federal Reserve via FRED, Caldara et al. Of course, not […]
Glass House Analysis
Labor market conditions shape the lived experience of millions of working families. When jobs are plentiful, workers have leverage to demand better wages and conditions; when they're scarce, the balance of power shifts to employers. This dynamic plays out daily in kitchen tables across America, where families make decisions about whether to ask for a raise, change jobs, or accept less-than-ideal conditions out of necessity.
Central bank policy decisions made in boardrooms cascade through the economy in ways that touch everyone. A quarter-point rate change might seem abstract, but it determines whether young families can afford homes, whether businesses can afford to hire, and whether retirees see meaningful returns on their savings. The tension between fighting inflation and maintaining employment represents a fundamental tradeoff in economic policy—one that invariably creates winners and losers.
The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.
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