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Econbrowseranalysis

Small Firm Employment and Business Cycle Prospects

Econbrowser
Monday, June 15, 2026 at 1:38 PM
~4 min read
Labor Market

Original Report

From ADP, one sees that employment growth has accelerated, small firm employment, and employment share, has decelerated. Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment in firms 1-19 employees (blue),...

From ADP, one sees that employment growth has accelerated, small firm employment, and employment share, has decelerated. Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment in firms 1-19 employees (blue), and share of total private nonfarm payroll employment (red), both s.a. Source: ADP via FRED. Small firm employment (1-19 employees) constitutes a nontrivial share of total private […]

Glass House Analysis

Labor market conditions shape the lived experience of millions of working families. When jobs are plentiful, workers have leverage to demand better wages and conditions; when they're scarce, the balance of power shifts to employers. This dynamic plays out daily in kitchen tables across America, where families make decisions about whether to ask for a raise, change jobs, or accept less-than-ideal conditions out of necessity.

The implications extend beyond the immediate news cycle. Every economic development creates ripples that affect employment, prices, and opportunities in ways that may not be immediately visible but are deeply felt. By tracking these connections, we can better understand how the economy truly works—not as an abstract machine, but as a human system shaped by and shaping the lives of millions.

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